Arkansas State: The Red Wolves have opened 0-2, losing 31-10 at home to Toledo and then 51-14 at Auburn. The Arkansas State defense had its hands full with Auburn, as a seven-point deficit at the end of the first quarter quickly grew and the team was out of it by the half, trailing 38-7. ASU has offensive woes after just two games with only 384 passing yards without a TD pass and a modest 208 rushing yards on 2.8 YPC. Defensively, ASU is allowing 631.0 YPG (ranks 128th), on 323.5 YPG on the ground (127th) and 301.5 YPG through the air (115th).

Utah State: The Aggies opened their season with a 45-6 win at home over Weber State (RB Mayes had 208 rushing yards and three TDs) but then caught an embarrassed USC team in LA, coming off a season-opening pasting by Alabama. Utah State was in the wrong place at the wrong time and got beat 45-7! Mayes got hurt and was limited to 24 yards on eight carries and after rushing for 428 yards (on 9.7 YPC) as a team against Weber State, the Aggies were held to 49 rushing yards on 26 attempts. The team's defense was overmatched, allowing the Trojans 422 yards of total offense on 81 plays.

The pick: Matt Wells is in his fourth season at Utah State and he's the first Utah State coach to lead the team to three straight bowl berths and the only Aggies coach to win back-to-back bowl games. The Aggies are 16-3 SU at home under Wells and hadn't lost in Logan going back to October 12, 2013 versus Boise State, before losing at home in last year's regular season finale against BYU. However, ASU's Blake Anderson is a quality head coach with plenty of FBS experience and in his first two seasons at Jonesboro, has led the Red Wolves to a bowl game. With Mayes questionable with an injury for Utah State, I'm taking the points. Arkansas State is an 8* play.