The set-up: The Yankees came to Boston on Thursday right in the thick of the AL wild card chase and also just four games out of first place in the AL East, behind the Red Sox. However, they blew a 5-0 lead on Thursday and fell 7-5 to Boston's ninth-inning rally. The Red Sox have gone on to win Friday and Saturday (another comeback win), so the Yanks are now effectively out of the division race (Boston leads by seven games with 14 games remaining) and their wild card hopes have also taken a huge hit. The Jays and Orioles are both 81-67, as they fight over homefield advantage in the one-game wild card playoff. The Astros, Mariners and Tigers are all three games back of Toronto and Baltimore, with the Yankees now four games out. That mountain now seems too high to climb.

The pitching matchup: C.C. Sabathia (8-12, 4.10 ERA) will start for the Yankees and Drew Pomeranz (10-12, 3.25 ERA) goes for Boston. Sabathia has not fared well against the Red Sox ion his career, going 12-15 (4.81) over 35 starts (teams are 15-20) and his career Fenway ERA is 5.15! Pomeranz was acquired by the Red Sox from the Padres in exchange for pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza in what has become a controversial deal, as Padres general manager A.J. Prella was suspended for 30 days for withholding medical information. Pomeranz is 2-5 with a 4.60 ERA in 11 starts with the Red Sox (Boston is 4-7).

The pick: It's hard to be too confident regarding Pomeranz but how about that Boston bullpen? It owns a 1.06 ERA in September and the Red Sox. Combine that with a lineup that ranks first in runs scored (5.57 per), team BA (.286) and OPS (.821) and one has a winning formula. Boston gets the sweep and is an 8* play.