With 73% of the tickets and 86% of the cash on UConn, I really would love to take San Diego State here, but I can't make a good enough case to go against the grain.
UConn is not unbeatable, but they have been against the non-Big East competition this season and dominated in the tournament. The Huskies can win a high-scoring shootout, or they can win a low-scoring ugly slugfest, and they can do both convincingly.
The Aztecs have a chance, but they'll have to shoot above 40% from three and have a subpar game from UConn. I expect this game to be close for the first 16 minutes, but the Huskies will grid away and eventually cover the number, as I don't see SDSU being able to score in key moments consistently.
I'll take UConn 69-59.