The Astros have lost the last two games that Verlander has started, and I don't expect that losing streak to hit three games. Overall the Astros have won 7 of the last 9 games that Verlander has started by at least two runs. Houston is also 6-1 in its last 7 home games with each win coming by two runs or more. The Twins are coming in struggling after being outscored 14-6 in a four-game series against the Rangers. With the Twins starting Aaron Sanchez who has a 5.44 ERA since 2018 and a 7.50 road ERA this season, I expect the Astros to win this game in blowout fashion.
The moneyline has no value here, but even at -160, I like the runline here, as Verlander is 4-1 with a 0.75 ERA in five starts against the Twins since he joined the Astros in 2018. This includes Verlander allowing just one hit in eight innings in a 5-0 Astros win over Minnesota on May 10 of this season. I also expect Houston and the crowd to be pumped up for the return of Carlos Correa as the Astros cover the runline.