The over is 15-8 in Nick Pivetta's starts this season, and the Red Sox have allowed at least five runs in eight of his last 10 starts.
On the other side, the Rangers are expected to start Dallas Keuchel who has an 8.84 ERA in 13 starts this season. Keuchel is now with his third team this season, but his clubs have allowed at least 11 runs in four of his last six starts, which includes him getting rocked for six earned runs in two innings against the Red Sox back in May.
The over is 7-0-1 in Texas' last 8 games against losing clubs, and the over is 4-0-1 in Boston's last 5 against clubs with a losing record. I love this over.