Griffin Canning’s track record against the Astros has been poor, with a winless 0-3 record and a high ERA of 6.69 across 9 appearances. The Astros have historically hit him hard, and his lack of success against them makes it difficult to expect a strong outing. Canning is also coming off a rough season, so it’s unlikely he'll find immediate improvement here.

Spencer Arrighetti, on the other hand, had a rocky rookie season and struggled during spring training, making him a wild card in this matchup. His lack of big-league experience, combined with recent struggles, means we can’t count on him to shut down the Mets. Both teams could take advantage of shaky pitching, and with potent offenses in the mix, take the over 8.5.

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