This is the earliest bowl game I am jumping on. If this moneyline price goes above -145, please take Bowling Green and the points up to -4.
After starting 0-4 New Mexico State is in a bowl game. They did beat Liberty 49-14 this season, but look at the timing. It was the final regular season game for Liberty (they stumbled in final three games). Outside of the Liberty win, the resume for NM State is not impressive for a bowl team at all.
Bowling Green is a flawed team as well, but I like the Falcons a lot more in this spot. NM State starting QB Diego Pavia who had six touchdowns in the Liberty win has now entered the transfer portal.
Detroit is about a 1 hour and 10 minute drive from Bowling Green's campus, whereas the NM State has a long way to travel for the holidays. I like the Falcons here.