MIT Simulator - NFL Thursday Ravens vs Dolphins Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Baltimore 24.49, Miami 21.03 - Projected Total Points: 45.52 - Current O/U: 37.5 - Variance to O/U: 8.02 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 8.02 points. Value in excess of a touchdown! Key factors noted: The short week has been impacting to teams playing on Thursdays with the defenses particularly worn down and seemingly extra susceptible to big plays. The over is now 5-2 in Thursday games this season. The Ravens rush defense ranks dead last in the league. Miami QB Matt Moore played very well in relief of the injured Jay Cutler last week. Baltimore is on a 3-0 O/U run. Ravens rushing offense was averaging 129.5 yards per game prior to struggling against Vikings strong defense Sunday. Now Baltimore gets a shot at a Dolphins rush defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry the past two games. With both teams likely to run ball well, that opens up the passing game for a confident Moore and a determined Joe Flacco to attack through the air. Flacco has struggled this season but has looked a little better and avoided turnovers in 2 of his last 3 starts. At home, and with some receivers likely returning to the lineup, the Ravens should enjoy more success on offense in this one. Projected box-score shows Ravens and Dolphins combining for 263.40 yards of rushing total. Projected box-score shows Baltimore and Miami combining for 409.68 yards of passing total. Combined yardage of 673.08 total yards equating to 45.52 points per MIT Simulator. Play: OVER