We have an angle that basically says if the home team has a significantly higher winning percent at home than the road team does on the road, to take the road team.

The Patriots yards per rushing attempt, yards per pass, and yards per play relative to what their opponents normally allow or get compared to the Colts most definitely suggest Indianapolis is the better team, so even with home field this line should be about three.

Indianapolis should be ready for the quick tempo of the Patriots. During the regular season, only the Texans defense had offenses run more plays per second.

Because they are so good at QB and WR the Colts have overcome shortcomings in less important areas all season. Several sharps I know are taking Indy on the money line.