If a road favorite of 5.5 or more is coming off a loss as an underdog and/or road loss, they continue to be a profitable bet since the 1980s.

The theory being that one quality team loses to another quality squad, then will take out their frustrations on an inferior team. Our scorephone clients have won with this for more than a quarter century and when we discovered it, the winnings went back as far as our database did: to 1980.

Please note that the original angle was 5.5 or more. We noticed that after the turn of the century, shorter-term we saw the system was better at -5. However, in retrospect that fine-tuning was a wash. It is much stronger at -5.5. If the line drops below 5.5, it still applies as the angle is based on using oddsmakers knowledge against them and not affected by square moves.

New Orleans third worst net rating in NBA in their last five games -9.4, led by third worst defense 108.4 points per 100 possessions. Toronto has best defensive efficiency in their last five games allowing a mere 92.8 points per 100 possessions.

New Orleans is without best player Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson. That is more than 38 points per game for a team that lost Jrue Holiday a while back.