All pressure in Iowa as this is their toughest game as hunted. They will find how it is so much easier to be the hunter than the hunted. Iowa has only 53rd strength of schedule in the nation.

Nebraska has had all six straight up losses by 10 or less; five by a combined 13 points, four by three or less. So they have a very deceptive record

Home teams that despite 5.9 or better points per game margin, yet under .500 straight up are 76-60 (51-39 if at least 3 losses). So that tells us teams like Nebraska that has stats better than their straight up mark are good value.

Iowa much better with turnover margin, but that is a lag indicator. Some good fortune, also correctable mistakes for Nebraska. Nebraska clearly has upside. They also get the upset.