Wise Guy
(MLB) Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia,
Money Line: -123.00 Philadelphia (Home)
Result: Win
Saturday NL Game of the Year

Pitcher with much worse ERA is a very good bet. This is a clear regression to the mean angle to the tune of +325.53. Superior home team with inferior pitcher is +118.48. When both apply, the ROI is 16.5 at +88.5 units. When the team is a Saturday home favorite, the ROI is a stunning 34.7.