Going with the much more disappointing offense based on delta points scored it 480-360-16. Of course, game 2 is the most common time it applies and very much wins. Based on delta points scored. Delta points scored is how many points they scored relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread.

An inferior team off a spread loss versus opponent off spread win and other situation that apply in this contest is 449-316-13. Action Network has this as a 6.3 point difference, giving us a 9.4 percent EV.