One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them winning at a rate of 47 percent. Which is is substantially different from the consensus odds implied probability of 37.74, depending on line shopping.

This is also an outsourced pick from the short-list of very entrusted experts. Previously called a competitor consensus, the name was changed to reflect it does not always come from the few quality professionals who sell picks, but also can come from any sharp source. As long as I am not leaning the other way, I will bet a trusted outscource.