One of the skills we pro gamblers have is separating perception from reality and exploiting off lines or in this games, totals that are inflated accordingly. Brees-Brady, the knee-jerk reaction is to bet over.

New England has gone under 4-of-5 by an average margin of 13.5. They have had three games go under by 18.5 or more.

The Saints have also gone under 4-of-5, all by 6.5 or more and three by 10.5 or more. Tom Brady has fewer weapons than ever, but the line does not reflect that. They are getting just 5.8 yards per pass to teams normally allowing 6.4.

Sean Payton and the Saints are leading the NFL in time of possession this season. This is because he focused on his year off on improving defense and the running game, plus showing patience and throwing under coverage. This total is based on the 2012 versions of these teams. We are betting 2013 under.