Yes it is true that we de-emphasize systems, but here is one that has held up for about 1,300 games and it impossible to ignore, especially since other factors corroborate it.

When a home team is coming off a win of 35 points or more it is a stunning 718-562-26 against the spread. When the win was by 37 or more, the winning percentage goes up, though units won a bit less because of fewer games at 609-459-24.

True, the way Buffalo has played, it was tough to make it as strong as the game above. But these two teams both played tough early schedules and it is paying off for now. Then another key metric pointed towards Toledo as well as a nice sub-system that takes it above 60 percent.