Our true line (previously known as outlaw line) is New Orleans -6.5. The true line is what the line would be without public perception or bad line moves. This is as big of a discrepancy as we have ever seen in the NFL regular season game this late in the season.

Both teams are much better at home than on the road. Mind you, many would theorize it is because they are both dome teams and the fact the Saints are playing a road game in a dome would greatly nullify splits. Still the fact New Orleans gives up 5.9 yards per play on the road while getting 5.8, make this double-digit spread enormous. New Orleans has just two straight up wins on the road, while both of the Falcons wins are at home.

Atlanta at least has something to rally around and that is avoiding humiliation at home at the hands of their most hated rivals. New Orleans hits the road on a short week after an overtime win against San Francisco. Tough spot and the line move dictates the home dog is a strong, albeit ugly percentage play.