Ohio State has dodged some bullets lately. They were sloppy in wins to overmatched Illinois and Indiana and literally went down to the last play against a week Michigan squad. Those who read our preseason preview saw that we isolated Michigan State as a very good spread team for this year, very undervalued coming off some brutal losses last season.

They respond by going 7-2-1 against the spread down the stretch. Their spread setbacks were to an even more underrated Minnesota team, one that is probably the most underrated in the country among BCS conferences. They won the game 14-3.

The other Vegas loss during that span was when they shutout Purdue. That is not bad: in their last 10 games, they came up short in contests in which they allowed a combined three points.

It is uncanny how the BCS always get what they want and they certainly wish for an SEC team in the title game. All they need is a Michigan State win. Michigan State is the better defense allowing .8 fewer yards per rushing attempt than Ohio State does and a stunning 1.7 yards per pass fewer. In fact, the Spartans allow just 3.8 yards per play versus teams normally getting 5.3. This is much better than Ohio State allowing 5.0 versus squads that usually get 5.5. We are predicting an upset.