This is one we liked when the line came out but were confident in getting more points as the week went on. Look, when a team is a 34-point underdog, it is tough to make a compelling argument the game will be close.

But keep in mind when Baylor was destroying teams last year, they were in statement mode. They were potentially battling FSU and Ohio State to play in the BCS Championship game and needed those style points.

Now if Baylor were to go undefeated obviously winning the Big 12, they are going to make the Final 4. The style points issue does not apply. The rivalry dog angle is admittedly not a sharp one, but SMU has so much more to play for in getting a moral victory.

Against an overmatched foe I will not look for the extra energy of a new stadium to be a factor. SMU will cover ugly. There are eight returning defensive starters for SMU. Their QB is too good to be getting this many points. SMU sophomore QB Neal Burcham shared MVP honors with Jameis Winston at the ESPN Elite 11 Showcase before their senior seasons in high school. Burcham started SMU final two games last season as a redshirt freshman. They lose by 28 or less.