Wise Guy
(NCAAF) Southern Cal vs. Arizona,
Point Spread: -2.50 | -110.00 Southern Cal (Away)
Result: Loss
College Football Game of the Year

This is a big regression to the mean game. Yes it helps that their huge upset was nine days before this game, but this is still a tough back-to-back situation for an Arizona team that feasted on an easy first four games.

After a stunning win at Oregon, they now play their two toughest games back to back. USC is much better than their record shows. The loss to BC was a brutal spot traveling across the country after playing at Stanford. The loss last week is more inexplicable, but this is a classic case of not overreacting to each teams most recent performance.

Southern Cal would have been a substantially larger favorite if this game were played last week, so that is why each team will regress to the mean. Of course there is some concern about USC off a heart-breaking loss, but a win on the road over an over-ranked team will be just the cure.

Fresh off their 24-17 win at previous No. 2 Oregon last Thursday, the Wildcats became the first team since the poll went to 25 teams in 1989 to move from unranked to the Top 10.

That is demonstrative of just how overrated Arizona is. Last year they started out with three straight wins against patsies, then things got tougher. The huge upset does not erase their three previous wins were by a combined 14 points to UTSA, and home games to Nevada and Cal.

Another of our Golden Rules is that it is so much easier to be the hunter than the hunted. This is especially true in college football. Arizona is in uncharted waters as now being the hunted.