ASA's 10* MLB Run Line
(MLB) Boston vs. Tampa Bay, 09/11/2020 6:40 PM, Score: 1 - 11
Point Spread: -1.50 | -113.00 Tampa Bay (Home)
Result: Win
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5 runs) over Boston Red Sox, Friday at 6:40 PM ET

Stop the presses...the Red Sox (16-29 this season) have won 2 straight games! All kidding aside it has been a very rough season for them and note that Boston is 1-5 this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. As you can deduce from that, the longest winning streak is 3 games for the Red Sox this season. They have a chance to match that here but they won't. This one is a complete mismatch which is why the Rays are priced as a more than a $2 favorite on the money line here. The value is in the run line in what is set up perfectly to be a home blowout. The Red Sox, prior to these back to back wins, were mired in a stretch that had seen them lose 20 of 28 games. 15 of those 20 defeats came by a margin of 2 or more runs and per our computer math modeling, this one will too! Blake Snell is the Rays ace and he takes the mound off his very first loss of the season and with his team on a 3-game losing streak. There is not better time to grab an ace and Snell should dominate Boston. The Red Sox hitters that have experience against him have a combined .158 batting average with 0 homers and 2 RBI in 76 bats. That includes holding Xander Bogaerts (Boston's most feared hitter) to just 3 hits in 23 at bats for a .130 batting average! Snell went 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in the month of August before losing his first September start which was also his first loss of the season. He struck out 8 in 5 innings and his "stuff" on the mound is just fine. His counterpart tonight is Boston's Andrew Triggs and he is really more of an opener. He is unlikely to pitch deep into this game and has a 9.95 ERA this season and had a 5.23 ERA in his most recent season pitched - 2018. That means what matters here most, with Triggs not working deep, is overall pitching of the Red Sox. That said, note that Boston is dead last in the majors with a 6.10 ERA on the year. This one is all Rays! Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they hammer the Red Sox pitching plus ride a strong start from Snell and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a short price by laying the 1.5 runs. Lay it! Bet the Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday.