The Chiefs have allowed a whopping 34 sacks in 10 games and I look for a big game from the Buffalo defense here on Sunday afternoon. Look for the Bills to use even more blitz packages than normal, as Alex Smith has struggled with a QBR of 23 when facing teams that blitz more than 50% of the snaps. Last season, the Bills outgained the Chiefs 364-278. Buffalo was up 13-3 in the fourth quarter before the Chiefs scored 14 unanswered points to steal a win. The Bills are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss. The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after playing on Monday Night Football. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last last seven meetings. Too many points here and I like Buffalo in a tight game +5.