Arrieta has struck out 20 batters over 14 innings in his past two starts, including a career-high 11 in his last outing vs. Miami. I don't see that happening tonight with the Reds.
Cincinnati has quietly been putting it together, playing well this month. Starter Homer Bailey has helped lead the surge, with the team 5-1 his last six starts, plus 7-3 his last 10. He's already faced these light hitting Cubs once...and shut them out for 6 innings.
Chicago is ranked 26th in runs, 29th in on base percentage and 21st in slugging. The Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. A right-handed starter including 21-6 in the last 27 meetings in Chicago. Take the Reds.